China will officially confirm US crude oil purchases by June 2026

Market overview

Despite Trump's announcement, China has not yet confirmed the energy purchases. Given the strategic importance of the deal and ongoing US-China relations, an official confirmation from Beijing is likely within the next month.

event prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Source: user-generated

More event markets

• Vanguard-Altruist deal closes by Feb 2027 — 70% Yes
• Democrats flip Virginia’s 2nd district in 2026 special election — 72% Yes
• Ugandan kingdom to hold new monarch election by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Prince Harry to attend a public royal event with King Charles by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
• Carlson announces 2028 presidential run by 2027-03-01 — 55% Yes
• Mpox cases in African children exceed 10,000 by 2026-end — 50% Yes
• Sambanova files for IPO by Q2 2027 — 75% Yes
• Forterra's Lancer ATVs surpass 5,000 miles driven in Ukraine by 2026-12-31 — 75% Yes

Browse all event markets →