Labour Party will hold a leadership contest with a new leader by 2028…

Market overview

If Starmer resigns or is forced out, Labour MPs will likely trigger a formal leadership contest. The party will aim to select a new leader within 3-4 months, given internal pressure for stability and urgency.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

80%

Closes

2028-12-31

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Will CFO resign before 2026-12-31? — 40% Yes
• Rep. Edwards resigns from Congress before 2026 midterms — 55% Yes
• Chuck Edwards to resign before Ethics Committee ruling — 70% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio partnership gains influence in Middle East policy by 2027 — 55% Yes
• Edwards resigns from Congress by end of 2028 — 60% Yes
• Trump administration to nominate a more industry-aligned FDA chief by Labor Day — 68% Yes
• NRCC chair calls for town halls ban by 2027 — 60% Yes
• Will CEO Mark Zediker resign before FYE? — 60% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →