Starmer survives confidence vote in Labour Party by August 2027

Keir Starmer will avoid a formal confidence vote within the Labour Party by August 2024, as internal opposition fails to reach the threshold required for a leadership challenge. Support from Deputy PM David Lammy and over 100 MPs will prevent a successful ousting attempt.

leadership · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Closes

2027-12-31

More leadership markets

• Starmer survives leadership challenge, cabinet reshuffle by September 2027 — 55% Yes
• Labour MPs to trigger leadership challenge within 30 days — 60% Yes
• Labour Party removes Starmer as leader by October 2028 — 70% Yes
• Nigel Farage to become UK Prime Minister by 2027 — 35% Yes
• Carl Heastie faces leadership challenge by 2027 — 60% Yes
• Keir Starmer resigns as Prime Minister by October 2027 — 60% Yes
• UK Labour Party loses another junior minister by October 2027 — 70% Yes
• Wes Streeting will announce a leadership bid against Keir Starmer by July 2027 — 70% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →