Chain-of-thought reasoning surpasses human benchmarks by 2028
Resolves: Chain-of-thought AI models achieve higher scores than the average human participant in at least one recognized standardized reasoning competition (e.g., Math Olympiad, LSAT) with published results.
user-generated· tech_stocks
Chain-of-thought reasoning surpasses human benchmarks by 2028
Market overview
By March 2028, chain-of-thought AI models will achieve performance exceeding human baselines on standardized reasoning tasks (e.g., math competitions, legal reasoning tests). This marks a milestone in AI's ability to articulate intermediate steps transparently.
tech_stocks prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2028-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Chain-of-thought AI models achieve higher scores than the average human participant in at least one recognized standardized reasoning competition (e.g., Math Olympiad, LSAT) with published results.
Source: user-generated
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