NATO members agree to 5% defense spending hike by 2027
Resolves: A formal NATO communiqué or allied national budget laws enacted by December 31, 2026 commit to raising defense spending to at least 5.0% of GDP by 2027.
user-generated· regulatory
NATO members agree to 5% defense spending hike by 2027
Market overview
At the July 2026 Ankara summit, NATO will publicly commit to a binding five-year plan raising collective defense spending from 2.5% to 5.0% of GDP by 2027. The pact is driven by U.S. pressure under Trump and aims to counter Russian aggression.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
A formal NATO communiqué or allied national budget laws enacted by December 31, 2026 commit to raising defense spending to at least 5.0% of GDP by 2027.
Source: user-generated
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