S&P 500 Ex-Elon ETF underperforms S&P 500 index by 5% or more through 2027-06-30
Resolves: The SPNE ETF's total return is at least 5 percentage points lower than the S&P 500 index's total return from 2026-07-10 to 2027-06-30, based on official index and fund performance data.
S&P 500 Ex-Elon ETF underperforms S&P 500 index by 5% or more through…
Market overview
The SPNE ETF, which excludes Tesla and SpaceX, will trail the broader S&P 500 index by at least 5 percentage points over the next 11 months due to the exclusion of high-growth components. Tesla and SpaceX have historically driven significant returns in their respective indices.
price prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2027-06-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The SPNE ETF's total return is at least 5 percentage points lower than the S&P 500 index's total return from 2026-07-10 to 2027-06-30, based on official index and fund performance data.
Source: user-generated
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