user-generated· political
Reform UK polling share declines below 10% by October 2026
Market overview
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage triggered a by-election in his constituency, Clacton, where he will stand again. With Burnham's Labour Party consolidating power and a mainstream populist agenda in place, Reform UK's support is likely to fracture. Current polling shows Reform UK at 12%; a drop below 10% would signal a significant shift in the political landscape.
political prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-10-10
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