Iran's uranium stockpile reaches weapon-grade levels by 2027
Resolves: IAEA confirms Iran possesses ≥25kg of highly enriched uranium (20% or more) or demonstrates weaponization capability
user-generated· regulatory
Iran's uranium stockpile reaches weapon-grade levels by 2027
Market overview
Iran's buried uranium stockpile at Isfahan, currently low-enriched, will be extracted and enriched to weapons-grade levels within 18 months. Recent damage to enrichment facilities and uncertainty over stockpile locations create a high-risk window for Iran to accelerate its nuclear program despite international oversight.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2027-01-01
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
IAEA confirms Iran possesses ≥25kg of highly enriched uranium (20% or more) or demonstrates weaponization capability
Source: user-generated
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