Conservative Party loses Reform UK vote share lead by 2027 election
Resolves: Conservative Party's vote share is lower than Reform UK's vote share in the next UK general election (expected in 2027 or earlier).
user-generated· politics
Conservative Party loses Reform UK vote share lead by 2027 election
Market overview
Robert Jenrick's defection to Reform UK and ongoing donation scandal could erode the Conservatives' polling lead over Reform UK by the time of the next general election. The scandal's continued coverage and potential legal fallout may shift voter sentiment toward Reform UK.
politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2027-07-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Conservative Party's vote share is lower than Reform UK's vote share in the next UK general election (expected in 2027 or earlier).
Source: user-generated
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