user-generated· macro
Oil prices rise above $100/barrel by October 15
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and continued geopolitical tensions are likely to sustain upward pressure on oil prices. A sustained spike above $100/barrel would reflect heightened supply risks.
macro · Prediction Market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
More macro markets
- Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
- S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
- Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
- Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
- Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
- US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
- Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
- NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes
Loading…