OpenAI’s certificate rotation forces macOS user updates by June 15

Market overview

OpenAI disclosed it is rotating digital certificates used to sign its products as a precaution after the breach. This will require macOS users to update the app, which is likely to generate measurable user friction and potential adoption delays.

product prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

85%

Source: user-generated

More product markets

• Wi-Fi-enabled kid phones surpass 1M units sold by 2026 — 75% Yes
• Major cloud provider integrates Vercel Sandbox by end of 2026 — 60% Yes
• Anthropic publicly discloses kill switch details by 2027 — 70% Yes
• Simplify hits #1 on Amazon business books — 40% Yes
• Major cloud security firms will integrate AI defenses against agentic ransomware by Q1 2027 — 80% Yes
• Uber resumes expansion into Austria, Norway, or Greece by Q4 2026 — 75% Yes
• First Solar production capacity increases by 20% in 2027 — 72% Yes
• Runlayer discontinues MCP product line — 60% Yes

Browse all product markets →