Fireworks-related wildfire ignition count rises 20% in 2026
Resolves: National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reports confirm that fireworks were the cause of ignition in at least 20% more wildfires in 2026 than in 2025.
user-generated· legal
Fireworks-related wildfire ignition count rises 20% in 2026
Market overview
Despite widespread fireworks bans, the number of wildfires ignited by fireworks will increase by 20% in 2026 compared to 2025. This reflects persistent drought conditions and public disregard for restrictions.
legal prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2027-01-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reports confirm that fireworks were the cause of ignition in at least 20% more wildfires in 2026 than in 2025.
Source: user-generated
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