Fireworks-related wildfires increase 30% YoY in 2026
Resolves: Number of wildfires directly attributed to fireworks in 2026 exceeds 2025 total by at least 30% according to NIFC wildfire cause reports.
user-generated· event
Fireworks-related wildfires increase 30% YoY in 2026
Market overview
July 4 fireworks restrictions were widely implemented this year due to high wildfire risk. Despite bans, illegal or permitted fireworks usage is likely to spark additional fires compared to 2025, aligning with observed patterns in prior drought years.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Number of wildfires directly attributed to fireworks in 2026 exceeds 2025 total by at least 30% according to NIFC wildfire cause reports.
Source: user-generated
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