Will the total estimated cost for a new SpaceX spaceport in Louisiana be publicly reported as less than $90 billion by December 31, 2026?
Resolves: YES if SpaceX or a reputable financial/news source publicly reports an official or revised estimated total cost for the new Louisiana spaceport that is explicitly stated to be less than $90 billion by the end of 2026. NO if the reported cost remains $90 billion or higher, or if no revised estimate is publicly reported.
Will the total estimated cost for a new SpaceX spaceport in Louisiana…
Market overview
Large infrastructure projects are frequently subject to cost overruns or, less commonly, initial estimates being revised downwards after more detailed planning. A $100 billion figure is substantial and could be an early, high-level estimate.
Economics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 30%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if SpaceX or a reputable financial/news source publicly reports an official or revised estimated total cost for the new Louisiana spaceport that is explicitly stated to be less than $90 billion by the end of 2026. NO if the reported cost remains $90 billion or higher, or if no revised estimate is publicly reported.
Source: user-generated
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