UK average mortgage rates rise above 5% by Q4 2026

The Bank of England's projections indicate rising mortgage costs due to geopolitical tensions. By Q4 2026, the average mortgage rate for new fixed deals is expected to exceed 5% as lenders price in higher funding costs.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-12-31

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →