Will the US annual inflation rate (CPI-U, all items) exceed 4.0% for any month between 2026-10-01 and 2027-09-30?
Resolves: YES if the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted) as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is greater than 4.0% for any single month's data released between 2026-10-01 and 2027-09-30. NO otherwise.
Will the US annual inflation rate (CPI-U, all items) exceed 4.0% for…
Market overview
The discussion around rate hikes implies concerns about inflation. If the Federal Reserve's actions, or lack thereof, fail to curb price increases, or if other economic factors push prices higher, inflation could remain a significant issue.
Economics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 40%
- Closes
- 2027-09-30
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted) as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is greater than 4.0% for any single month's data released between 2026-10-01 and 2027-09-30. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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