OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta announces AI development pause by 2026-12-31
Resolves: Any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta issues a public statement committing to a pause in frontier AI development.
user-generated· event
OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta announces AI development pause by 2026-12-…
Market overview
At least one of the three companies publicly commits to a temporary halt in frontier AI model training or deployment.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 30%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta issues a public statement committing to a pause in frontier AI development.
Source: user-generated
More event markets
- 2026 US midterms see highest youth voter turnout since 2008 — 72% Yes
- House Ethics Committee to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards by July 2026 — 75% Yes
- Goldman Sachs acquires regional bank by 2027 — 70% Yes
- Kalshi or Polymarket leads US prediction market by 2027 — 70% Yes
- NY rape law revision bill introduced by 2027 — 70% Yes
- Consultants in England initiate strike action by 2026-12-31 — 75% Yes
- Pizza Express Woking branch to close within 12 months — 60% Yes
- Bloomberg will host a live event featuring Dan Carlin by year-end — 65% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…