South African police arrest rate for foreign fugitives increases by 20% in 2026
Resolves: South African police report a 20% or greater increase in the number of foreign fugitives arrested in 2026 compared to 2025.
user-generated· event
South African police arrest rate for foreign fugitives increases by 2…
Market overview
The arrest of Tshuma, widely publicized as a success, will lead to a measurable increase in cooperation and enforcement actions against foreign fugitives in South Africa. Metrics will reflect a 20% rise in arrests compared to 2025.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
South African police report a 20% or greater increase in the number of foreign fugitives arrested in 2026 compared to 2025.
Source: user-generated
More event markets
- Will HCAC announce LOI by 2026-12-31? — 25% Yes
- Will PREAXIA HEALTH CARE PAYMENT SYSTEMS INC. (PAXH) (CIK 0001350156) file a follow-up 10-Q amendment within 90 days? — 25% Yes
- Will Venyra announce a strategic partnership by 2026-12-31? — 60% Yes
- Will the CEO's line of credit be fully drawn? — 85% Yes
- Will enGene announce a new partnership or licensing deal before Q1 2027? — 50% Yes
- Will Where Food Comes From, Inc. (WFCF) (CIK 0001360565) file a follow-up 10-Q amendment within 90 days? — 25% Yes
- Will Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) (CIK 0001943896) file a follow-up 10-Q amendment within 90 days? — 25% Yes
- Will Pharma-Bio Serv, Inc. (PBSV) (CIK 0001304161) file a follow-up 10-Q amendment within 90 days? — 25% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…