ARB Terminal guide
How to use the ARB Terminal
The terminal ranks Kalshi and Polymarket contracts by how far their price is from Predictagon's model fair value, so you can spend your time on the markets most likely to be mispriced.
- 1
Start with a preset
Pick Balanced, High conviction, Cross-venue or Short-dated above the market list. Each preset sets the filters for you; open Filters to fine-tune.
- 2
Scan the list
Markets are ranked by edge: the gap in cents between the model's fair value and the live market price. The letter badge is the confidence grade (A is strongest). SPREAD means the same event trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
- 3
Open a market
Select a row to see price vs fair value, price history, and a position-sizing guide. The dashed line on the chart is the model's fair value.
- 4
Check the thesis
The Thesis tab breaks the fair value into weighted sub-claims. Drag a weight to see how the edge changes if you disagree with the model.
- 5
Compare venues, then set an alert
Spreads lists live price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket and Sentiment shows news, social and momentum signals. Use Alerts to get an email when an edge crosses your threshold.
Keyboard shortcuts
- J / ↓
- Next market
- K / ↑
- Previous market
- /
- Search the list
- 1 2 3
- Thesis, Spreads, Sentiment
- A
- Open alerts
- ?
- Show this guide
- Esc
- Close dialogs, clear selection
Frequently asked questions
›What is the ARB Terminal?
A screener for prediction-market mispricings. It compares live Kalshi and Polymarket prices with Predictagon's model fair value, ranks the gaps, and shows the evidence behind each one. It is in beta.
›What does "edge" mean?
Edge is the model's fair value minus the current market price, in cents per contract. A +8¢ edge means the model thinks a Yes contract is worth about 8¢ more than it costs. A negative edge means the market looks overpriced. Edge is an estimate, not a guaranteed profit.
›What do the A, B and C confidence grades mean?
The grade reflects how much the model trusts its own fair value for that market. A is the strongest. C is the weakest and is best treated as a lead to research. The Confidence filter hides everything below the grade you pick.
›What does the SPREAD tag mean?
The same event is listed on more than one venue. The Spreads tab shows the live prices side by side, so you can see whether one venue is cheaper than the other.
›What do the liquidity tiers mean?
Low, mid and high describe how easily a position can be entered and exited. A large edge on a low-liquidity market can disappear when you try to trade it, which is why the default view hides the low tier.
›How do I read the Thesis tab?
The fair value is built from weighted sub-claims, each with its own probability. Moving a weight recalculates the blended fair value and the edge, so you can test how sensitive the result is to your own view.
›How often does the data update?
The market list refreshes every 30 seconds while the terminal is open, and the Spreads feed updates live as new spreads are detected. Prices on the venues can move faster than that, so confirm on the venue before you trade.
›How do alerts work?
Open Alerts, choose an edge threshold, minimum confidence grade and venues, and Predictagon emails you when a market crosses the threshold. You need to be signed in. Push notifications are a Pro feature.
›Does the terminal place trades?
No. It is a research tool. Every market links to its venue, where you place orders yourself. The position-sizing guide uses the Kelly criterion and is not financial advice.
›Why is my list empty?
Your filters may be too strict. Lower the minimum edge, widen the horizon, or turn on more liquidity tiers. The Reset filters button restores the defaults.
›Do I need an account?
You can browse the screener, market detail, spreads and sentiment without signing in. Creating alerts needs an account, and push alerts are part of Pro.
The ARB Terminal is a research tool, not financial advice. Model fair values are estimates and prices on the venues can move at any time.